Tuesday, June 16, 2020

My C code to calculate market capitalization of a stock

This is like the 5th or 6th C program I've written.  It asks a user for the 1. shares outstanding and 2. the stock price, and then it restates what it asked and what the user answered, and then it calculates and prints out "Market Cap is ..."

#include <cs50.h>
#include <stdio.h>

int main(void)

{

    int sharesout = get_int("what are the shares outstanding?\n");
    int stockprice = get_int("what is stock price?\n");

    printf("Shares Outstanding are %d\n ", sharesout);
    printf("Stock price is %d\n", stockprice);
    
    int mktcap = sharesout * stockprice;

    printf("the market cap is %d\n", mktcap);



}

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Finding good investment themes


  While the long-term bull market has been largely attributable to the influx of money into index ETFs, which has been successful for some time, due to Covid a new paradigm shift has occurred.  That paradigm is one that no longer says growth and low unemployment will alone catapult the market forward due to a relatively healthy capitalist system.  Instead, we've learned over the past few months, that humanity can be challenged by complex viruses and if we are not more prepared, we are all at risk.  

Finding Investment Themes that make sense and staying with them, until they don't.  It's all your call, your opinion, your perspective on where you fit in, what products and services you value and whether those companies reflect not only your perception of the world, but also if those companies are growing.  The above discussion regarding how I'm viewing the new paradigm causes me to focus on my first investment theme, Scientific Research to further strengthen and improve the overall health of humanity.  Coming off of selling all of my equity holdings in early March,  just after the covid crash, and then starting to reinvest  that cash slowly back in in late March, a few months ago, I started investing more heavily into pharama and biotech, more than ever before.  This is because investing in Science is not only good for humanity and life on earth as we know it, it is also good for business and returns.  In addition the disparity of valuation that is being seen within that sector, is greater than I've ever experienced.  

I'm currently allocated to Regeneron, CRISPR, Illumina, JNJ, Bristol, Abbott and Masimo - I believe genetic editing and immunization and treatment for molecular and biological disease and treatment.  Covid falls into the biologic.  All of these companies, from what I've read show great progress with fda approved drugs in pipeline for re

More on Remote Software

DOCUsign, MSFT, FB, SNAP, 

This portfolio shows that it performs very well when the markets are uncertain and when the "covid trade" as its been coined which has been favorable to 

Friday, May 22, 2020

Current Portfolio

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1F30wVvslgeYgs0eX_LcYGL09OdPQG4bDichvgR4bE_4/edit?usp=drivesdk

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Assessing E(R)p Expected Return

A friend of mine who is very entrepreneurial, like me, called me up to intro me to 2 other "partners" to launch a new business in the medical product delivery space. We both have small and growing related businesses that could theoretically grow faster with the success of the delivery business. I encouraged him to focus on his, or my existing product line, not a new business. Once you have a sustainable business worth real revenues and real client accounts, would it then make sense to create the delivery business.

Every new business decision should be assessed with E(R), expected return.

Project 1 - Sell sell sell, with existing resources or inexpensive toolsets that can increase the marginal return of selling one more product. This is easy effort means modest but important sales. In economics, this is called assessing the Marginal Return of a product or service. Marginal Revenue / Marginal Cost. Optimally, an owner wants his Marginal return to be increasing. High probability of sales, low scaling factor. Takes time to grow to get ready for Project 2 below.

Project 2 - new delivery business, unknown cost structure, team, partner risk, unknown returns, and more. Huge potential return, huge risk. Low probability of realizing any return short term, ober the same time period as Proj 1. The devil is calling you with this Project, and with little execution experience to see him, it, for what it is, a long shot. Do not listen!

With the above, the probability, 0

Heres how i assess it. Simplified without any error coefficient.

If $1,000 of potential revenue
Proj 1 E(R) = 80%*1000 = $80

Proj 2 (R) = 1%, So if above, 1%*X=80, so x=80/.01 or $8k is what profit

Of Proj 2 must be in order for the additional risk (lower probability) to be worthwhile, over the same time period.  By the way, if you'be ever studied derivati es, that probability is the same as the delta of an option. Its essentially the percent probability that your project (or option) will prove to be have a sucessful outcome (in the money, when time is up).  This is just not a reality for a new company with modest revs and clients, its also a deathwish.

Product product product, Sales sales sales.

Stay focused.




Thursday, May 7, 2020

Slack - WORK - An alternative to email, finally?

For years, companies have been trying to solve the "alternative to email."  Noone's been able to solve it.  The closest to try?  Google's Gmail with more efficient cataloguing of emails, a redesign of email threads which consumers grabbed onto as a last resort.  When I learned about email way back in the early 90s, it was a revelation, an amazing technology that allowed messages to be sent to anyone in the world for free.  Only a few years earlier, I had been studying in Mexico as part of my graduate program's study abroad - and remember having to communicate with my friends and family back home with fax or snail mail.  And years earlier - it was mail.  So, how amazing when email came and also MUDs - multi-user dungeons.  Do you remember the commands?  N, S, E, W for directions.  "Pick up axe", "Attack"  "Pick up stone", etc. this was before the first Graphical Interface, Mosaic which was also a mind-blown event.

But, over the years, email has gotten tired - we lose emails - spam is still a major problem - its time consuming - remember, "Send signature Receipt" - a lot of attempts to improve email have failed.

Its because technology and information has surpassed what email as an app can handle.

And, along comes Slack - most IT professionals use it - its got the brand and the users and the functionality AND, seems to be the best yet alternative to Email.

I've owned it for several months as one of my smallest positions, and now I'm watching closely as it hit 29.57 today so far - its tested its previous 6 month high of 30.47.  It's done this twice in that time frame - that's a good sign, but not a buy sign until it breaks 30.47.  If so, it has room to run to 40.


So, I've put a Stop Limit Buy Order to double my position, Stop at 30.48, and Limit of 30.48.  This means if it trades 30.48, automatically place a limit order for 30.48.

Why don't I just buy it now?  I'll be buying it $1 lower - isn't that better?  Not in my mind.  If we buy it here and it doesn't break 30.47, then it could fall again - I have my money at risk without technical confirmation.  If I wait to buy it if it hits 30.48, then my Expected Return increased substantially, because the probability of increased returns increased from an unknown, or 50% chance to, because of technical confirmation of breaking out above 30.48, of >75% in my opinion.

Slack - let's keep an eye on it!