Saturday, April 9, 2022

Never Again - thoughts on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 2022

 


listen to me read it to you

read my essay on Medium 

“Never Again” — Or maybe just one more time.

Never again…Never again? What does it mean?

There’s not a lot that draws me to the news these days, but Russian’s invasion of Ukraine sure got my attention. And it really gets me angry enough to write, edit and re-write at 1am in the morning.

“Never again?” Have we been joking all this time?

My ancestors on my father’s side actually were from Ukraine. When I was about 7 or 8, my father told me that his father shortened our name of Omansky to Omans. “Why?” I asked. He told me by shortening our name it would help him to get a job because people still hated Jews and they wouldn’t hire him. Well, Thank G-d we don’t have to worry about that Ever Again.

Never Again!

So, in my twenties, I changed my birth name of Omans back to Omansky, a somewhat feeble and naive attempt to get closer to those ancestors.

Shortly after changing my name, I visited Yad Vashem in Israel, and learned that when my father’s grandfather arrived in the U.S., his name actually was NOT Omansky. It was Umansky. Not Omansky! What? I’m confused; nobody told me that. So, how could it be? During my trip, I learned our name starting with U-M-A-N meant we were from Uman, Ukraine, the burial place of the famous and important Rabbi Nachman. The town of Uman had remained an annual pilgrimage for Jews from all over the world who still come each year on Passover, even to this day! When I learned all this as an adult, it felt….cool! Hey! My family came from Uman, an important town for Jews! Who knew? Not me. But, All Right!!

But, why was I never told? Maybe they didn’t know. Or, maybe they forgot.

Never forget?

I always loved thinking about where I came from and imagining how my ancestors lived. How different their lives must have been. But how were they similar too? Who knew? Who remembered? Who could tell me?

Did I have their curly hair, as my daughter has mine? Did they think like me? Did they experience similar emotional responses to the world? Did they have similar struggles, and gifts? Who of them perished during the Holocaust? What were they thinking the moment they met their demise…

…And could it happen to me here in America?

“NO, dont say that. Dont be silly. That’s not possible.

“NEVER AGAIN.”

What did they mean by Never Again? And what about all the other different ones the Nazis hated, and punished for no reason at all, Catholics, Blacks, Gypsies, Gays, to name a few? Could it happen to them again? Could it even be worse?

Of course not! That’s why we say, Never Again.

“Never again” became echoes of my psyche, the words of my Rabbis at synagogue, Chabad, and in Israel, as I came to identify and understand more about my faith and ethnicity, and the recurring suffering of the Jewish people over millennia. Never would the world stand idly by and watch such horrors occur again and again and again to the Jewish people… or…to…others?

Never…again.

I read and learned later that many Americanized Jews, after WWI and WWII attempted to forget what had happened, and assimilate into their new diverse communities, while gradually and unconsciously effacing their own jewishness.

If WE forget, maybe THEY won’t remember. And better yet, maybe they won’t notice that we actually ARE different. And yet other Jews had been taught that we MUST remember in order for the rest of the world never to forget, what the Nazis did to us.

“Never again.” We tell the words to each other. We say them to feel strong against ANY enemy who tries to extinguish us again.

We are careful not to compare other atrocities and terror to what happened to us under Hitler’s regime. And we are right to do so, because the horrors of the Holocaust were the sparks of a pure maniacal and deranged tyrant, one who deserves a special place in history we’d like to forget, but know we shouldn’t. While we hope and believe there can never be another sick mind like that.

Never again?

“Never again”, means that never again should we as a global human race allow a dictator or people to kill and torture innocent people. But it’s happening…again.

When Hitler raged his terror campaign on the world, the history books tell us the civilized world waited far too long, and hoped it would just stop. And had we continued to wait, it certainly would have turned out differently. And if we dare to learn from that history, the longer we wait now, the harder it will be to stop the terror, and that’s exactly what Putin hopes will happen...again.

The words of “Never Again”, feel like a hollow disappointment. Oy vay.

I AM angry and fearful that without strong and decisive, collective action, these two words will remain only words and they will cease to carry the strength and meaning we have assigned to them.

Never again. Never again?

What does it mean?

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

My C code to calculate market capitalization of a stock

This is like the 5th or 6th C program I've written.  It asks a user for the 1. shares outstanding and 2. the stock price, and then it restates what it asked and what the user answered, and then it calculates and prints out "Market Cap is ..."

#include <cs50.h>
#include <stdio.h>

int main(void)

{

    int sharesout = get_int("what are the shares outstanding?\n");
    int stockprice = get_int("what is stock price?\n");

    printf("Shares Outstanding are %d\n ", sharesout);
    printf("Stock price is %d\n", stockprice);
    
    int mktcap = sharesout * stockprice;

    printf("the market cap is %d\n", mktcap);



}

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Finding good investment themes


  While the long-term bull market has been largely attributable to the influx of money into index ETFs, which has been successful for some time, due to Covid a new paradigm shift has occurred.  That paradigm is one that no longer says growth and low unemployment will alone catapult the market forward due to a relatively healthy capitalist system.  Instead, we've learned over the past few months, that humanity can be challenged by complex viruses and if we are not more prepared, we are all at risk.  

Finding Investment Themes that make sense and staying with them, until they don't.  It's all your call, your opinion, your perspective on where you fit in, what products and services you value and whether those companies reflect not only your perception of the world, but also if those companies are growing.  The above discussion regarding how I'm viewing the new paradigm causes me to focus on my first investment theme, Scientific Research to further strengthen and improve the overall health of humanity.  Coming off of selling all of my equity holdings in early March,  just after the covid crash, and then starting to reinvest  that cash slowly back in in late March, a few months ago, I started investing more heavily into pharama and biotech, more than ever before.  This is because investing in Science is not only good for humanity and life on earth as we know it, it is also good for business and returns.  In addition the disparity of valuation that is being seen within that sector, is greater than I've ever experienced.  

I'm currently allocated to Regeneron, CRISPR, Illumina, JNJ, Bristol, Abbott and Masimo - I believe genetic editing and immunization and treatment for molecular and biological disease and treatment.  Covid falls into the biologic.  All of these companies, from what I've read show great progress with fda approved drugs in pipeline for re

More on Remote Software

DOCUsign, MSFT, FB, SNAP, 

This portfolio shows that it performs very well when the markets are uncertain and when the "covid trade" as its been coined which has been favorable to 

Friday, May 22, 2020

Current Portfolio

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1F30wVvslgeYgs0eX_LcYGL09OdPQG4bDichvgR4bE_4/edit?usp=drivesdk

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Assessing E(R)p Expected Return

A friend of mine who is very entrepreneurial, like me, called me up to intro me to 2 other "partners" to launch a new business in the medical product delivery space. We both have small and growing related businesses that could theoretically grow faster with the success of the delivery business. I encouraged him to focus on his, or my existing product line, not a new business. Once you have a sustainable business worth real revenues and real client accounts, would it then make sense to create the delivery business.

Every new business decision should be assessed with E(R), expected return.

Project 1 - Sell sell sell, with existing resources or inexpensive toolsets that can increase the marginal return of selling one more product. This is easy effort means modest but important sales. In economics, this is called assessing the Marginal Return of a product or service. Marginal Revenue / Marginal Cost. Optimally, an owner wants his Marginal return to be increasing. High probability of sales, low scaling factor. Takes time to grow to get ready for Project 2 below.

Project 2 - new delivery business, unknown cost structure, team, partner risk, unknown returns, and more. Huge potential return, huge risk. Low probability of realizing any return short term, ober the same time period as Proj 1. The devil is calling you with this Project, and with little execution experience to see him, it, for what it is, a long shot. Do not listen!

With the above, the probability, 0

Heres how i assess it. Simplified without any error coefficient.

If $1,000 of potential revenue
Proj 1 E(R) = 80%*1000 = $800

Proj 2 E(R) = 1%, So if above, 1%*X=800, so x=800/.01 or $80k is what profit

Of Proj 2 must be in order for the additional risk (lower probability) to be worthwhile, over the same time period.  By the way, if you'be ever studied derivati es, that probability is the same as the delta of an option. Its essentially the percent probability that your project (or option) will prove to be have a sucessful outcome (in the money, when time is up).  This is just not a reality for a new company with modest revs and clients, its also a deathwish.

Product product product, Sales sales sales.

Stay focused.