Tuesday, September 25, 2018

As I Lay Resting On The Ground

Trees growing with roots in ground,
and grass all around,
Twigs breaking with sounds abound,
rustling animals in the wind,
Shiny particles of light, reflecting off the pond,
All that matters whisking away in the wind,
As I lay resting on the ground.

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Know when to hold em and know when to fold em

One of the most difficult decisions to make in life is to know, after an extended period of time, which has become habit and comfortable, when to walk away. This concept of when to drive through the difficult moments and stay in a situation, even though it's difficult, and when to walk away because it's not healthy, or a disagreement due to ethics, principle, or a separate reason applies to any difficult decision that puts me at a fork in the road of life. The obvious easy way is to stay  and the harder way is to leave. It's taken me more than half my life to learn, that my heart typically has the answer. What I've found is that after making that hard decision, what I initially feel is fear, loss, and sadness. Very quickly though, after those feelings pass, I feel lightness, happiness, and a sense of relief and renewal. For me, this means growth, and I find that once a situation is pulling on me to stay because leaving is scary with uncertainty of what lies ahead behind that closed door,, it's time to open it up and walk through. Usually, its bright on the other side.

Friday, June 1, 2018

Madrigal, MDGL

I've owned MDGL at 52 or 53 a few months ago when I bought it recognizing a potential breakout. I made 110% on this NASH drug company after reading about the impressive team. I sold it a few days ago on technical weakness. ouch to me. When I open my account and see that its +140% this morning. The market is so humbling when something like this happens. The beat we can do is to try to take a lesson from this.

Thursday, May 31, 2018

Loving Twitter, with cheap downside protection - Love companies beaten down that have come back.

Twitter is a company I've used for many years as a user, but never really substantially owned the stock until now.  The one-year chart is just a beautiful sight to see.  For about a year's time between 2015 and 2016, the stock lost 75% of its value.  This is when users were growing exponentially, but the company was failing to grow revenue or to be profitable.  Many investors at this time were buying the stock as it was falling just knowing that the stock, because of the user growth, just had to perform.  Yet, it failed to for the next year.




I just love companies that have built up a rock-solid brand, have struggled, and then reinvent themselves.  The underlying support for the company, once they "figure it out", is what makes 5 to 10 baggers or more.  Think Amazon, Netflix, Apple.  I believe Twitter belongs in this category and the time to buy is now. 

Not only do the technicals look very strong, but the company has turned profitable, growing revenues and earnings for the past 2 to 3 quarters, AND, they've reinvented themselves and have diversified their sources of revenue. 

With 336 million monthly active users, this company is set up for multi-year equity gains.

I was talking with my cousin about this one yesterday, and he suggested buying a large position at market, but also buying some downside puts about a month out.  I bought the 31 puts and he bought the 31.5 puts.  The 31s cost me only 23c per contract.  The stock was up 53c yesterday when I bought the puts.  My rationale is that these puts are very inexpensive given the fact that the stock could rise by 50c or more in a day.  The 23c you give up for calamity, worst case insurance is well worth it. 

Odds are good that the stock will continue to rise as the company continues to figure things out, and potentially continues to diversify its revenue stream on the back of its 336 million MAUs.

This is a good one, in my opinion for all of these reasons.

Friday, May 18, 2018

Some of my interesting finds at Consensys NY

Some of my interesting finds at Consensys NY, in no particular order

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StreamR - this is definitely at the top of my list.  Developing ways on the blockchain to monetize the data around us while allowing individuals and companies to own and control their own data.  This is kind of like a cross between Internet of Things and big data - very excited with workable product.  

Dala coin - democratizing money transfer in developing nations - now in 7 African countries - workable product.

cprop.io  - real estate on the blockchain

oilcoin - crypto backed by oil reserves

ruuvi - bluetooth enabled device to monitor and distribute environmental data like temperature, humidity, activity, etc.  They are working with StreamR

Siglo - blockchain to democratize money transferability and decrease impediments in emerging markets

Others, I'm either currently invested in or have an interest in investing:  

Bitcoin
Binance
ZeroX
BAT


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I attended Consensys NY this week and it was one of the most attended conferences I've EVER been to, let alone in the blockchain space.  There were lots of interesting technologies, some I had known about prior to attending, and others that were entirely new and thought-provoking. 

I'm typically looking for technologies or companies that:

1) have an alpha or beta early workable product or at least a value proposition and clear path of getting there.  I don't invest on concept alone.  If there is no product, then the team has to be able to show they've created a similar product,

2) have an interesting concept with a clear path to a direct value add to increase efficiency of an ecosystem,

3) have an excellent technical team with some idea of the underlying business proposition or go to market, even if distant into the future.  I'd like to see a semblance of a plan on how to monetize,

4) though not a necessity, its a huge bonus if this disruptive technology or business already has paying clients and/or users,

5) a community using or "vouching" for the product,

6) be in a space or category that I believe in and can easily integrate into my own evolving value system.

7) an investor base that I can understand - yes, I do like following money that's smarter than my own!  Its a great way to learn, in addition to increasing probability for successful outcomes.

I believe by investing in businesses and technologies that I enjoy using, consuming and living in, that great synergistic advantages will come to those technologies and businesses as well as for my own growth.  

I intentionally stay away from businesses and people who are not in accordance with my core belief system (examples of these types of companies that I WILL NOT INVEST in currently are oil producers or refiners, tobacco, guns or ammunition manufacturing or distribution.

I'm currently interested in learning more about and am currently investing in: disruptive technology, genetic research and analysis, epigenetics, alternative energy, electric automobiles, U.S. traditional manufacturing, specifically U.S. Automobiles, microprocessors, hardware and software, alternative medicine.


Thursday, January 4, 2018

A pre-algebra lesson plan.





Here is a pre-algebra lesson plan I thought up.  The lesson plan is designed for 7th graders and uses the kids, themselves, in the plan.  Each student gets a shirt with, =, +, -, *, x, a, c, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0, etc. printed on the shirt - all those characters that are in basic equations.  So, if the equation is 2x-3=5, then John (2) stands next to Jenny (x), who stands next to Mike (-) who stands next to Anne (3) who stands next to Jill (=) who stands next to Robbie (5) - those kids face the class, all the others are in their seats waiting to be included in the next equation.  Those kids say which kids need to move to the other side of the equals sign.  After this exercise is done for a full period or two days, the kids are told they are not allowed to talk about the project in person and any questions or thoughts are recorded in a chatroom, shared document, where the students can talk freely amongst themselves about what all this meant - the silliness, yet hopefully answers to many questions about this abstract topic for 7th graders.  Here are my original thoughts recorded in audio in a 5 minute clip.

Audio Clip

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Living in a Digital World

2017 marked an event so globally pertinent to democratizing money and disintermediating the banco-governmental establishment that has monopolized the "means" of how humans store and exchange value today. People everywhere, and I mean everywhere most simultaneously adopted the notion of a new decentralized method using blockchain technology to transact monetarily.

It's funny - as I talk to friends who have also 'seen the light' it seems there is usually a pivotal moment in time that we connect with the idea and its possibilities and decide, not only to think about it, but to be part of it also.  Is that connection a relation to the idea, or to our human consciousness about the potential brought about by the idea for the collective benefit of our species, society and all around us?
We begin to realize, and then, bam! I can see what is possible. It is similar to the birth of the internet and open communication and free access to all information via a shared network of computers. But blockchain seems unexplainably bigger than that.

I began by researching the dominant coins commanding the greatest market share trying to understand what potentially is driving their price appreciation, and then investing in them.  I then started to think about which ones, the better known ones, like bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin, and then some of the lesser-known ones, that potentially could disrupt multiple industries at once with a network effect.  

I expect many ups and downs along the way, but I believe by buying the leaders and value-add innovators in the digital currency space, that there is a great probability for outsized returns and as well as an exciting space to learn and contribute.  In addition, a strong argument can be made that investing a small portion of a portfolio in this risky, early stage new technology is healthy for a portfolio.  This is because through diversification in a non-correlated asset increases the expected return of the portfolio while reducing the volatility - and this certainly is the case here - thus changing the slope of the Capital Asset Pricing Model upward and to the left, lower portfolio volatility and higher expected return.  This is due to the low correlation of returns between this new asset class and more traditional asset classes.  Its a good thing for sure, but doesn't warranty that returns will increase over any term - but still, as long as the amount invested is constrained to the most risky portion of a portfolio, it is beneficial to the portfolio, and I would argue necessary.

current portfolio:

Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, Omisego, IOTA, NXT