Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Gilead's rare bullish chart -- Zoom light years ahead.








Two days ago I posted,  that the .SPX was at a critical point that if it broke through 2879, then there seemed to be 10%-15% upside before resistance sets in.  Yesterday it broke through early in day and seemed to lose steam, but still closing above 2879.  Today we hit a big rally, so that call seemed to become a reality today with the .DJI up 2% and Nasdaq +3.5% and .SPX up 2.5%.  That's a good beginning but seems we have more to run until about 3,100 on the .SPX - so it's more like from 2850 to 3,100, and then 3,400 is next resistance level.

I own Gilead - they seemed to be on a good track toward treatment and other covid-19 drugs, but moreson, this was complemented by a phenomenal chart that seems to be setting the stock up for multiple returns going forward.  Looking at the 2 year chart below, you can see an extremely long base and accumulations of stock with increasing volume over the last month or so - it almost looks like an old-school steam locomotive, gathering enough power and then its unstoppable (would it be steam or diesel, or both?, hmm). And finally, Gilead's P/E ratio is about a 12, which is extremely low for a company that is already quite profitable, with a good pipeline of drugs, even before the Covid-19 opportunity.  This combination of positives in a stock analysis is what I strive for in choosing a company to invest in.  When there's a combination of "good factors" that potentially could hit a homerun for the stock, its time to load up.




Gilead is showing a 2-year base and it has recently broke above that base.  And is rallying due to Covid treatment drug promising results.  Gilead leads the pack of several pharma companies working on treatment, testing and immunization products.  

The longer the base of a chart, the stronger the rally that follows...usually...there's always a usually.


Gilead released positive results toward an effective treatment for Covid-19.  They are in Stage 3 and the closest to an FDA fast track toward approval of their medicine.

Funny enough a few days ago, a leaked report from WHO about a chinese study of Gilead's remdesivir was published and the market punished Gilead - Gilead immediately made a statement that it was not accurate.  Its important not to fear a stock selling off short term and to learn why it is selling off or rallying before taking any action.  I decided to add to the position when it sold off because it didn't make sense and Gilead responded positively.  It seemed like a hedge fund leaked information for some reason.

Zoom
Zoom is selling off because Google is entering online video conferencing and ramping up efforts.  Facebook said they were also and this hurt Zoom.

Zoom enables 50,000 attendees on a zoom call.

"While video Hangouts for personal users is limited to 10 users, the current limit is 15 simultaneous users in Google Hangouts for Business Apps. The new video calls limit for Google Apps for Work (Work, Gov and Edu) is now 25." Stack Exchange.  

Zoom is so far ahead of the competition 

Let that sink in.  Facebook can handle 50, Google 25 - yes, 25

That's a big difference.  Imagine you're on the product development team at Facebook and Zuck calls you in - "We're gonna build a great product to rival Zoom.  The time it takes Facebook to get a beta out and coordinate all the bureacracy of a large company is very long.  Zoom's light years ahead and they will stay that way.  Its very hard for anyone to catch up.









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